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Scenarios and models for exploring future trends in biodiversity and ecosystem services

Workshop, 13 May 2009, Brussels

About this event


Recent studies such as on The Cost of Policy Inaction on Biodiversityand The Economics of Ecosystems and Biodiversity (TEEB) have revealed that biodiversity loss has widespread and substantial economic costs and impacts on human wellbeing.

Such studies have taken into account a number of recent global and regional assessments that project future changes in drivers of ecosystem change and biodiversity loss according to various development scenarios, e.g. Millennium Ecosystem Assessment (MEA 2005), The Global Biodiversity Outlook (2006), the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fourth Assessment (IPCC 2007), the Global Environment Outlook 4 (UNEP 2007), the International Assessment of Agricultural Knowledge, Science and Technology for Development (IAASTD 2008), and the OECD Environmental Outlook (OECD, 2008).

The second phase of TEEB is currently underway, and this will include the development of further scenarios and models, that will build future visions and projections taking into account alternative policies that may create these environments. This is a crucial step in assessing ecosystem benefits and the cost of their loss, both in biophysical and in monetary terms.

To support this work the European Commission (DG Environment) has let a contract that will examine the use of scenarios and models for exploring future trends in biodiversity and their impacts on ecosystem services.



The study aims to

  • review the different scenarios and models used to explore future trends of biodiversity loss and ecosystem change and the impacts on the ecosystem services they provide;
  • review how these studies have factored in policy action, notably environmental and conservation policies;
  • propose a set of options for suitable models and scenarios to be used in future studies and discuss them in a workshop.

The study is being carried out by the Institute for European Environmental Policy, Alterra Wageningen UR, Ecologic Institute, the Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency and the United Nations Environment Programme – World Conservation Monitoring Centre. The study started in January 2009 and will be completed by mid-June.

For further information, please contact Graham Tucker at IEEP (gtucker (at)



This workshop is financed by the European Commission - DG Environment

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